Oscar Predictions

But I could be wrong...

Ok, because one of my friends suggested I should do this (thanks Pat), I’m making my predictions for who I think will win the Oscars on Sunday and who I think should and could win. I might be totally wrong though as this year’s races are tighter than usual at this point. Here it goes anyway:

Best Picture

Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Will win & Should win: Anora, Could win: Conclave

Directing

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Will win & Should win: Sean Baker, Anora, Could win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Will win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist, Should & Could win: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Actress in a Leading Role

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Will win: Demi Moore, The Substance, Should & Could win: Mikey Madison, Anora

Actor in a Supporting Role

Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Will win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain, Should & Could win: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Actress in a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Will & Should win: Zoe Saldana, Emilie Perez, Could win: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

A Complete Unknown (Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Screenplay by Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)

Will & Should win: Conclave, Could win: Nickel Boys

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Anora (Written by Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Written by Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Written by Coralie Fargeat)

Will win: A Real Pain, Could & Should win: Anora

Animated Feature Film

Flow (Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens and Gregory Zalcman)
Inside Out 2 (Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen)
Memoir of a Snail (Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney)
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek)
The Wild Robot (Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann)

Will win: The Wild Robot, Could & Should win: Flow

Animated Short Film

Beautiful Men (Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande)
In the Shadow of the Cypress (Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi)
Magic Candies (Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio)
Wander to Wonder (Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper)
Yuck! (Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet)

Will & Should win: Wander to Wonder, Could win: any but Magic Candies

Cinematography

The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)

Will & Should win: The Brutalist, Could win: Maria

Costume Design

A Complete Unknown (Arianne Phillips)
Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman)
Nosferatu (Linda Muir)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)

Will & Should win: Wicked, Could win: Nosferatu

Film Editing

Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (David Jancso)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Emilia Pérez (Juliette Welfling)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)

Will & Should win: Anora, Could win: Conclave - This category is a total toss-up

Makeup and Hairstyling

A Different Man (Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado)
Emilia Pérez (Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini)
Nosferatu (David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton)
The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Wicked (Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth)

Will win & Should win: The Substance, Could win: Wicked

Live-Action Short Film

A Lien (Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz)
Anuja (Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai)
I’m Not a Robot (Victoria Warmerdam and Trent)
The Last Ranger (Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw)
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek)

Will win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent, Could & Should win: A Lien

Music (Original Score)

The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)

Will & Should win: The Brutalist, Could win: Conclave

Music (Original Song)

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin)

Will win: El Mal, Could win: The Journey, Should win: Never Too Late

Documentary Feature Film

Black Box Diaries (Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin)
No Other Land (Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham)
Porcelain War (Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska and Paula DuPre’ Pesmen)
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius and Rémi Grellety)
Sugarcane (Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn)

Will & Should win: No Other Land, Could win: Sugarcane

Documentary Short Film

Death by Numbers (Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard)
I Am Ready, Warden (Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp)
Incident (Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven)
Instruments of a Beating Heart (Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari)
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington)

Will win: I Am Ready, Warden, Could & Should win: Incident

International Feature Film

I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)

Will win: I’m Still Here, Could & Should win: Flow

Production Design

The Brutalist (Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia)
Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter)
Dune: Part Two (Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau)
Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)

Will & Should win: The Brutalist, Could win: Wicked

Sound

A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco)
Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta)
Wicked (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis)
The Wild Robot (Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts)

Will win: Dune: Part Two, Could win: The Wild Robot

Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan)
Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould)

Will win: Dune: Part Two, Could win: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes